Tunisia Update January 2023
The people demand the fall of the regime
20th January 2023
Thousands of protesters are marching in the Tunisian capital against the increasingly authoritarian actions of President Kais Saied, demanding his resignation. The protesters are also commemorating the 12th anniversary of the Arab Spring revolution that swept the region. The central Avenue Habib Bourguiba, a key site of the 2011 revolution, was crowded with thousands of protesters waving Tunisian flags and chanting "the people demand the fall of the regime." Outside the Interior Ministry building on the street was a heavy police presence and water cannons. Protesters overcame police and metal barricades to reach the avenue, defying initial efforts by authorities to keep separate the various parallel protests organized by various political parties and civil society groups. The protest comes after the disastrous Dec. 17 parliamentary elections Tunisia held the first round of early legislative elections, in which 23 deputies were elected, including three women. There are a total of 154 seats in parliament. However, voter turnout was an all-time low of 11.22 percent of eligible voters. The protests come even as the country is facing a severe economic crisis, with rising inflation and unemployment. Tunisians have been hit in recent months by rising food prices and shortages of fuel and basic foodstuffs such as sugar, vegetable oil, and rice.
As for the elections, political parties have described this result as a failure of President Kais Saied and the exceptional measures he imposed in July 2021. Calls have been made for an early presidential election. The election is the last phase of Saied's exceptional measures. In fact, this was preceded by the dissolution of the Supreme Judicial Council and Parliament, the enactment of laws through presidential decrees, and the approval of a new Constitution by referendum on July 25. Saied's political opponents see the measures as a "consolidation of absolute individual rule" and a "coup against the Constitution," while his supporters see them as a "course correction of the 2011 revolution" that toppled the regime of former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. According to Saied himself, his measures are "necessary and legal" to save the state from "total collapse." In addition, the National Union of Tunisian Journalists called for state television to be neutral in the election campaign, arguing that the ISIE is trying to control state television and direct media coverage of the elections through direct interference in media content. The head of the Independent High Election Authority (ISIE) urged candidates in the second round of the early legislative elections, scheduled for Jan. 29, to avoid hate speech and focus on election programs. ISIE has also assigned 632 affiliated observers, including 524 field staff and 108 administrators, to monitor the campaign and ensure fair competition among the candidates. Preliminary results of the second round will be announced on Jan. 30 and 31, while final results will be announced by March 4. Some opposition parties are boycotting the election.
December 2022 Elections
12th January 2023
Predictions of the Tunisian elections in terms of gender did not bode well from the outset. In fact, a weakened parliament, dominated almost exclusively by men, was predicted. The new parliament will not only have little power, but also few women. In fact, out of 1,058 candidates for parliament, there turned out to be only 169 women, about 11.5 percent.
The Carter Center, engaged in Tunisia since 2011, launched an election observation mission in June 2022. The team of experts evaluated the July 25 referendum and the December 17 parliamentary elections. The Center's observation mission found that although the elections were technically well managed, the process behind the electoral framework lacked legitimacy and did not meet international and regional standards and obligations. When the president took control of all the levers of power on July 25, 2021, he responded to the widely shared feeling that the parliament had failed to address the social and economic issues that fomented the Jasmine Revolution in 2011. But unlike the inclusive processes that followed the revolution and led to the 2014 constitution, the tightly controlled process that produced the new constitution lacked broad consensus. It was conducted in a short period of time with no opportunity for public debate and was approved in a referendum with a turnout of just 30.5 percent.
In September, Saeid amended Tunisia's electoral law by setting aside political parties and instead creating what he called a presidential regime, without including any of the gender equality provisions that had made Tunisia a regional pioneer in women's political representation. In addition to eliminating the gender alternation requirement in candidate lists, the new law introduces additional requirements that disproportionately affect women who want to run for office and contributed to their exclusion. In fact, the new law, in which gender equality is not mentioned, also requires potential candidates to submit 400 signatures of registered voters in their constituencies and to self-fund or privately finance their campaign. Both put women at a disadvantage, as they are less likely to have the same powerful local networks sponsoring their candidacy as men and the same financial means as their male counterparts. Many Tunisian citizen observer groups have criticized the electoral law, noting that it was not drafted in a participatory manner involving key Tunisian stakeholders and creating an electoral system that further hindered the participation of women and youth. Because of the way both the constitution and electoral law were drafted, many political parties, civil society organizations, and other groups called for boycotting the elections. In addition, many Tunisians did not know the candidates or the new election structures and may not have voted for this reason.
As was to be expected, as a result, the elections, held on December 17, were much like the catastrophe foretold, with most Tunisian political parties either excluded from the process or boycotting it altogether. For some, the boycott was probably an opportunity to avoid voter judgment; for others, it was a principled defense of what they saw as democracy. December's elections were intended as a key event in Saied's roadmap for building a "new republic" after two autocracies and a period of parliamentary rule, the latter of which Saied criticized, labeling the body and its members as "corrupt" and "enemies of the people". Since suspending parliament and ruling by decree in July last year, Saied has sought to implement his longstanding vision of a Tunisian utopia, in which individual voices from across the country would be conveyed by respectable people, known to their community and lacking party allegiance, to a national body in Tunis and, ultimately, to the president. However, the low voter turnout, which ended up being only 8.8 percent, worked against him, giving relief to Saied's domestic political opponents. Almost immediately, the National Salvation Front opposition group called for Saied's resignation after what it described as a nationwide boycott of his program, arguing that voter abstention was deliberate and essentially represented the country's verdict on his program.
The U.S. State Department noted the low voter turnout and called on the Tunisian government without specifically mentioning Saied-to "further expand political participation" and "adopt inclusive and transparent reforms, including strengthening an elected legislature." With about half of Tunisia's population living in poverty and unemployment approaching 20 percent, the need for funding has never been greater. The reaction of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could prove crucial for both Saied and the Tunisian people. Before the December vote, the IMF announced that it would postpone its board meeting to approve Tunisia's desperate bailout plan until January, when the country will resubmit the reforms it pledges to undertake in exchange for a $1.9 billion rescue package. These will likely include reforms to the country's subsidy system, to be replaced with direct transfers of money to the needy, and liberalization of much of the public sector and state-owned enterprises, both areas politically toxic to any politician. Saturday's turnout weakens Saied's hand in negotiating painful reforms with donors, as well as incredibly proposing such reforms to a Tunisian public weary of rising prices, food shortages, and the constant threat of unrest.